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40k-metrics: My Black Templars

6/23/2011

9 Comments

 
Hello again everyone!  By now, many of you may already know what 40k-Metrics means.  Nikephoros on Bringer of Victory came up with a handy-dandy tool to measure top-tournament lists to see whether or not they are competitive.  Its primarily mathhammer based, so if that is not your thing, best to click away now.  Anyway, he explains the system in this blog post and has since done several other armies to see how they stack against last year's undefeated Nova lists.  My gunline army was one such army.  Nikephoros' article is re-posted after the "Read More" link.  :)

Marshal Laeroth over at Implausible Nature wanted me to breakdown his mech Templar list that he intends to bring to NOVA this year.  I very much respect the work he does on his blog and on Bolter and Chainsword for the BT community, and I am very sure that his is one of the best BT lists out there.

Here is the list:

HQ:
* Emperor's Champion w/ Black Sword, Bolt Pistol, Armor of Faith, and the Vow: "Abhor the Witch, Destroy the Witch." [110]

Elites:
* Sword Brethren Terminators: 5 Terminators w/ 2 Cyclone Missile Launchers, 5 Storm Bolters, 5 Power Fists, and Tank-Hunters. [265]
* Sword Brethren Terminators: 5 Terminators w/ 2 Cyclone Missile Launchers, 5 Storm Bolters, 5 Power Fists, and Tank-Hunters. [265]

Troops:
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]

Fast Attack:
* Land Speeder Squadron: 1 Land Speeder w/ 1 Heavy Bolter and 1 Typhoon Missile Launcher. [70]
* Land Speeder Squadron: 1 Land Speeder w/ 1 Heavy Bolter and 1 Typhoon Missile Launcher. [70]
* Land Speeder Squadron: 1 Land Speeder w/ 1 Heavy Bolter and 1 Typhoon Missile Launcher. [70]

Heavy Support:
* Predator Destructor w/ Autocannon, Lascannon Side-Sponsons, and Searchlights. [126]
* Predator Destructor w/ Autocannon, Lascannon Side-Sponsons, and Searchlights. [126]
* Predator Destructor w/ Autocannon, Lascannon Side-Sponsons, and Searchlights. [126]

Total Points: [1996] 


Before I did the breakdown, I asked him what his thoughts on his own list was.  I wanted to know from his playtesting experience where he felt the list was strong and where he was nervous about its weakness.  My hope was that his real world impressions would somewhat mirror the scores the list generated.  Because, you know, that is the point of the exercise.  His response was (in italics)...

Well, traditionally my problem area is killing hordes of infantry.  Doesn't matter whether its in combat or in the shooting phase.  I do have the tools to get it done, but it relies on them getting to mid-range where my bolters come into play (which is a dangerous proposition against some horde armies).

I don't believe that I have any problems killing MEQ in the shooting phase, with the huge numbers of AP2/AP3 weapons at my disposal.  And a vast majority of those cause instant death.  Likewise, my Rhino killing power is probably off the chart.

Unfortunately, that comes with a huge disadvantage in CC-ability.  Traditionally, my dual-CML terminators have acted as my CC unit and they have done well in that role, provided it wasn't against dedicated CC-units.  I've found that they are even effective against such units as TWC, provided the unit isn't jam packed with power weapons.  They also are my primary bubblewrap.  But I also have my EC for that duty.

My AV14 killing potential is probably a bit lower as well, since I don't have any melta weapons in the list.  However, in my games, I've found that I simply have too many Str 9 weapons for a Land Raider to handle and I have almost always managed to stop them from getting to me, whether by glancing or by straight up destroying them.  But if I don't, then its damage control as I can't stop them once they hit my lines.  Fortunately, there are other modes of preventing them from getting there such as movement blocking, speed bumps, etc.  And, as you mentioned, the top tables will very likely not feature lists with Land Raiders.

So to sum up, he feels his anti-infantry is adequate, his CC is a definite weakness, his anti-light mech is very strong, and that he is slightly vulnerable to heavy armor.  Many of his games come down to whether he is able to destroy the transports of dedicated CC units before they get to him.  As that goes, the game goes.

So what do the scores say?


Laeroth              DMS        DMCC        DRPG        DLRPG          Notes

EC                     0.11        2.25          0.00          0.00             Abhor
5 Terminators    3.34        5.75          8.89          2.132           CML Tank Hunters
5 Terminators    3.34        5.75          8.89          2.132           CML Tank Hunters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
3 Predators       4.52         0.00         19.67         3.12            AutoLas
3 Typhoons       4.71         0.00         10.00         0.00            3 CML 3 HB
Totals:             29.87      17.07       76.51       12.30

The scores pretty much confirm exactly how he says the army performs on the tabletop.  Which is what we want, since we want to be able to look at the scores of a list and predict how it will work compared to similar lists.

His anti-infantry shooting matches up very well compared to the winning NOVA lists from last year.  Why?  In addition to a lot of AP1/2/3 in general, he eshews melta and plays plasma.   Double-tapped plasma is very strong, especially against the dedicated CC units he fears the most.

His close combat is definitely a weakness.  But after looking at Mark Ferrik's 4-0 BA list from last year's NOVA, it seems high enough to be competitive... assuming the shooty is there, which is it.

His anti-light mech is very strong.  Again comparable to Mark Ferrik's list.  And unlike Ferrik, his numbers are mostly derived from 48" weaponry, rather than 6".  That difference means a ton, especially when your CC ability is what it is.  One statistical note that I thought was interesting that discovered while doing this: a double tapped Plasma Gun has the exact same chance to penetrate AV11 as does a lascannon.  The difference is 36" of range.

Laeroth is rightly worried about his inability to kill Land Raiders.  His scores are fairly low.  But Tony won the event with a score of below 20, and while it's fair to say that over 8 rounds of play he will surely run into some AV14, the chances of him running into a triple raider/triple monolith list are slight.  Incidentally, since most of his anti-14 is Str9 based rather than melta, he is actually better positioned to kill Monoliths than lists that derive their score from melta.  Food for thought.

My thoughts:  The list has definite strengths and weaknesses, however, unlike Mark Ferrik's Blood Angels, Laeroth's strengths do a good job of covering up his weaknesses.  The lists are very similar, and I would suggest that this BT list has every chance to do as well as Mark's BA list did last year.
9 Comments
Trignama
6/24/2011 12:44:28 am

Although I'm not sure what the abbreviations for the scoring sections mean (guess I could have read the link) seems to me that this guy is in complete agreeance as to how your list shall perform. Nova open is coming up soon huh? Maybe next year ill think about going, but for now represent us well ML!

Reply
Algesan link
6/25/2011 09:26:09 am

DMS=Dead MEQ from shooting at optimal range.

Can be jiggered a bit to simulate shooting out of range for units, for example, only use the CML shots to eliminate the SB firepower from Terminators. How useful would that be? Not sure, it might be, it might not be.

DMCC=Dead MEQ in CC assuming you get the charge.

Note that since "Witch" is used instead of "AACNMTO" that this number can be higher in BT lists with AACNMTO.

DRPG=Dead Rhinos Per Game.

Again, assume optimal range. This is the number of penetrating hits vs AV11 in five turns of shooting. Again, you could jigger this number, say for melta firing at 6+"-12".

DLRPG=Dead Land Raiders Per Game.

Same thing as above except against AV14 instead of AV11.

This might be a bust since it would require analysis of every list fielded, not just the top lists, to seek flaws and establish a pattern. Need lots of them to be able to smooth out bad players, bad player choices and/or dice luck. OTOH, I don't find anything wrong with his assumptions about GW basing their point costs on defense/mobility.

It reminds me of a couple of "funky" stat formulas I know of that produce valid results even if they supposedly don't account for "important" data (the money I've made on certain types of football pools...). OTOH, most "funky" stat formulas are a load of tripe.

Reply
Nikephoros link
6/26/2011 02:12:05 am

@Algesan Monday morning EST I'll be starting my series on the lists that went 0-4 at NOVA (as opposed to the competitive lists we have done thus far) and you'll see that this system, while not perfect, most definitely provides useful information.

Reply
Marshal Laeroth (Admin) link
6/26/2011 06:10:43 am

@ Nikephoros

Have you already written some of the articles?

Reply
Algesan link
6/26/2011 10:47:36 am

@Nikephoros: That would be good. I haven't done my lists yet, but I'll pull them up and then try to get some of the lists I've played against also.

As you grind them up (or share them out to be ground up), it will be fun to do some comparisons. Don't take it as a downer from me, I think you are onto something useful, even if some of your current stats end up as valid as BS. Or RBIs...


Reply
Nikephoros link
6/26/2011 10:54:29 pm

@Laeroth Yeah, I have 2 of the 4 done already.

Reply
Trignama
6/27/2011 03:40:29 am

Sorry to use your comment thread for a personal request but is there anyway I can have my list analysed through this method?

Reply
Algesan link
6/27/2011 04:52:23 am

Unless there is something I'm missing this is all a straightforward mathhammer calculation.

Take a 5/1 Crusader squad with Mg & PF,3x Bolters and BP/CCW on the Neophyte.

Optimal shot range is 12" (rapid fire weapons).

So you have seven bolter shots (6 from 3 RF bolters + 1 BP from BP/PF Initiate), one BP shot from Neo and one meltagun shot.

(Number of shots) * (Chance to hit) * (Chance to wound) * (Chance to fail save)

7 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 7/9 SM killed
PLUS
1 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/12 SM killed
PLUS
1 * 2/3 * 5/6 = 5/9 SM killed (No armor save vs melta)

DMS Rating should be about 1.42 for that squad.



Reply
Algesan link
7/9/2011 06:32:18 pm

I think we need to get the formulas, I'm getting some different answers for some of the same units. It doesn't appear to be straight mathhammer.

THDC squad DRPG
4 shot * 2/3 hit * 2/3 pen * 1/3 kill
(ignoring glances from SB)
PLUS
15 PF swings * 1/2 hit * 5/6 pen * 1/3 kill

Multiply by 5 turns to get
2.96 (shooting) + 10.42 (CC) = 13.38

Big difference from 8.89





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