40k-metrics: My Black Templars

Hello again everyone!  By now, many of you may already know what 40k-Metrics means.  Nikephoros on Bringer of Victory came up with a handy-dandy tool to measure top-tournament lists to see whether or not they are competitive.  Its primarily mathhammer based, so if that is not your thing, best to click away now.  Anyway, he explains the system in this blog post and has since done several other armies to see how they stack against last year's undefeated Nova lists.  My gunline army was one such army.  Nikephoros' article is re-posted after the "Read More" link.  :)

Marshal Laeroth over at Implausible Nature wanted me to breakdown his mech Templar list that he intends to bring to NOVA this year.  I very much respect the work he does on his blog and on Bolter and Chainsword for the BT community, and I am very sure that his is one of the best BT lists out there.

Here is the list:

HQ:
* Emperor's Champion w/ Black Sword, Bolt Pistol, Armor of Faith, and the Vow: "Abhor the Witch, Destroy the Witch." [110]

Elites:
* Sword Brethren Terminators: 5 Terminators w/ 2 Cyclone Missile Launchers, 5 Storm Bolters, 5 Power Fists, and Tank-Hunters. [265]
* Sword Brethren Terminators: 5 Terminators w/ 2 Cyclone Missile Launchers, 5 Storm Bolters, 5 Power Fists, and Tank-Hunters. [265]

Troops:
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]
* Crusader Squad: 5 Initiates w/ 3 Bolters, 1 Plasmagun & 1 Lascannon. Mounted in a Razorback w/ Twin-Linked Lascannons and Searchlights. [192]

Fast Attack:
* Land Speeder Squadron: 1 Land Speeder w/ 1 Heavy Bolter and 1 Typhoon Missile Launcher. [70]
* Land Speeder Squadron: 1 Land Speeder w/ 1 Heavy Bolter and 1 Typhoon Missile Launcher. [70]
* Land Speeder Squadron: 1 Land Speeder w/ 1 Heavy Bolter and 1 Typhoon Missile Launcher. [70]

Heavy Support:
* Predator Destructor w/ Autocannon, Lascannon Side-Sponsons, and Searchlights. [126]
* Predator Destructor w/ Autocannon, Lascannon Side-Sponsons, and Searchlights. [126]
* Predator Destructor w/ Autocannon, Lascannon Side-Sponsons, and Searchlights. [126]

Total Points: [1996] 

Before I did the breakdown, I asked him what his thoughts on his own list was.  I wanted to know from his playtesting experience where he felt the list was strong and where he was nervous about its weakness.  My hope was that his real world impressions would somewhat mirror the scores the list generated.  Because, you know, that is the point of the exercise.  His response was (in italics)...

Well, traditionally my problem area is killing hordes of infantry.  Doesn't matter whether its in combat or in the shooting phase.  I do have the tools to get it done, but it relies on them getting to mid-range where my bolters come into play (which is a dangerous proposition against some horde armies).

I don't believe that I have any problems killing MEQ in the shooting phase, with the huge numbers of AP2/AP3 weapons at my disposal.  And a vast majority of those cause instant death.  Likewise, my Rhino killing power is probably off the chart.

Unfortunately, that comes with a huge disadvantage in CC-ability.  Traditionally, my dual-CML terminators have acted as my CC unit and they have done well in that role, provided it wasn't against dedicated CC-units.  I've found that they are even effective against such units as TWC, provided the unit isn't jam packed with power weapons.  They also are my primary bubblewrap.  But I also have my EC for that duty.

My AV14 killing potential is probably a bit lower as well, since I don't have any melta weapons in the list.  However, in my games, I've found that I simply have too many Str 9 weapons for a Land Raider to handle and I have almost always managed to stop them from getting to me, whether by glancing or by straight up destroying them.  But if I don't, then its damage control as I can't stop them once they hit my lines.  Fortunately, there are other modes of preventing them from getting there such as movement blocking, speed bumps, etc.  And, as you mentioned, the top tables will very likely not feature lists with Land Raiders.

So to sum up, he feels his anti-infantry is adequate, his CC is a definite weakness, his anti-light mech is very strong, and that he is slightly vulnerable to heavy armor.  Many of his games come down to whether he is able to destroy the transports of dedicated CC units before they get to him.  As that goes, the game goes.

So what do the scores say?


Laeroth              DMS        DMCC        DRPG        DLRPG          Notes

EC                     0.11        2.25          0.00          0.00             Abhor
5 Terminators    3.34        5.75          8.89          2.132           CML Tank Hunters
5 Terminators    3.34        5.75          8.89          2.132           CML Tank Hunters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
5 Crusaders       2.33        0.83          4.36          0.52             Las/Plas, Bolters
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
Razor                0.75         0.00         2.91          0.71             TLLC
3 Predators       4.52         0.00         19.67         3.12            AutoLas
3 Typhoons       4.71         0.00         10.00         0.00            3 CML 3 HB
Totals:             29.87      17.07       76.51       12.30

The scores pretty much confirm exactly how he says the army performs on the tabletop.  Which is what we want, since we want to be able to look at the scores of a list and predict how it will work compared to similar lists.

His anti-infantry shooting matches up very well compared to the winning NOVA lists from last year.  Why?  In addition to a lot of AP1/2/3 in general, he eshews melta and plays plasma.   Double-tapped plasma is very strong, especially against the dedicated CC units he fears the most.

His close combat is definitely a weakness.  But after looking at Mark Ferrik's 4-0 BA list from last year's NOVA, it seems high enough to be competitive... assuming the shooty is there, which is it.

His anti-light mech is very strong.  Again comparable to Mark Ferrik's list.  And unlike Ferrik, his numbers are mostly derived from 48" weaponry, rather than 6".  That difference means a ton, especially when your CC ability is what it is.  One statistical note that I thought was interesting that discovered while doing this: a double tapped Plasma Gun has the exact same chance to penetrate AV11 as does a lascannon.  The difference is 36" of range.

Laeroth is rightly worried about his inability to kill Land Raiders.  His scores are fairly low.  But Tony won the event with a score of below 20, and while it's fair to say that over 8 rounds of play he will surely run into some AV14, the chances of him running into a triple raider/triple monolith list are slight.  Incidentally, since most of his anti-14 is Str9 based rather than melta, he is actually better positioned to kill Monoliths than lists that derive their score from melta.  Food for thought.

My thoughts:  The list has definite strengths and weaknesses, however, unlike Mark Ferrik's Blood Angels, Laeroth's strengths do a good job of covering up his weaknesses.  The lists are very similar, and I would suggest that this BT list has every chance to do as well as Mark's BA list did last year.