Attention!

10/20/2011

To the person who attacked my email address less than 24 hours ago, this is your warning to cease tampering with my account immediately. It was not wise attacking the account of a cop who has the resources available to find out exactly who did it. I know who you are. Do it again and you'll be hearing from my lawyer.

That is all.

25 Comments

Devjon link

10/20/2011 11:01:35 am

Ouch, that's gotta hurt.

Marshal Laeroth (Admin) link

10/20/2011 11:09:45 am

They didn't delete or do anything noticeable to the account itself, just accessed it. That is why they get the warning this time. Had they done something, I'd not be making this post. I would have already contacted their local Police Department.

Whether or not they read anything that is there in my email is of no consequence, because I don't keep important personal information there. The fact that someone felt the need to even do it in the first place is incredibly disrespectful, and frankly, a gross invasion of privacy. I will not tolerate it.

Trignama

10/20/2011 12:51:59 pm

Wow what a low life, I hope this person heeds your warning, and if not and he is near Milwaukee Ill happily pay a visit :)

Devjon link

10/20/2011 11:34:52 pm

So you're a Police Officer? I never would have guessed. What kind of thing do you mostly do?

Lucion

10/21/2011 03:18:47 am

Once I opened myself to giving away freebie paint jobs and time to a couple of random kids.

I sent the models later it turned out one of them had tried to hack into my account.

I learned from that I should have had greater boundaries in the first place.

Marshal Laeroth (Admin) link

10/21/2011 07:46:27 am

@ Trignama

Unfortunately, no he isn't. :(

@ Devjon

Yeah, I'm a patrol officer. I am, however, looking to get out of it sooner rather than later. While I'll be giving up great benefits, the job is not fun at all. Too much stress. Very long hours and very little thanks. Plus the political bullshit that goes with the job. I don't get paid enough for what I do and there is very little extra money after bills (due to the current economic situation with the state).

Marshal Laeroth (Admin) link

10/21/2011 08:01:13 am

@ Lucion

Yeah, this time around, I added another security feature where I am notified via text message anytime someone even attempts to log into the account. It'll send me a verification code that only I will get. :P

Lucion

10/21/2011 09:25:01 am

Laeroth! Hey man hows it going.

I need some urgent help. Otherwise, anyone very good with metrics - i.e. Algesan - or someone else who got on with the post here: http://nike40k.blogspot.com/2011/06/40k-theory-its-all-about-numbers.html

Lucion

10/21/2011 10:17:20 am

Is there like a proper math-hammer calculator somewhere that works for both shooting and assault?

I need to take a list and find out all this dms bits. Doesnt seem to be clear guides to doing so.

Lucion

10/21/2011 02:14:58 pm

This is cutting alot of out my equations over the past few hours. I am finding this quite difficult and reached my point of failure. Nevertheless:

5 missiles hit 66.4% of the time ( each side of the dice roughly approximates 16.6 - because 16.6 x 6 = 99.6% which gives a basis to use percentages at all)

- 3 missiles should hit and those 3 should kill 83% of the time (needing a 2+ vs marines out of cover - 5 x 16.6 = 83%) .

Where I am stuck:
How to converge the probabilities of 66.6? and 83.4% together?

In other words how to work out how many marines not in cover will die if 5 missile launchers shoot at them?

Well 3 marines should get hit. Each marine has a 16.6 percent chance of living. But how many will die over all?

Algesan link

10/21/2011 04:44:48 pm

What do you need Lucion?
First off, do everything in fractions before converting to decimal, it is a lot more precise.

BS 4 hits 4/6 = 2/3 of the time
S8 wounds T4 5/6 of the time
Krak missiles are AP3 which ignores 3+ armor saves (Power Armor)

So, you go X * 2/3 * 5/6, where X is the number of shots you make. So, it becomes 10/18 * X. You said 5 missiles above, so that would be 10/18 * 5 or 50/18 = 2.778 Marines dead.

If you have different weapon types in a unit, you just do each weapon type individually and then add them together.

For example, a Land Speeder Typhoon shooting 2x Krak missiles and 3x Heavy Bolter rounds vs. MEQ (T4/3+)

2 * 2/3 * 5/6 = 10/9 (no armor save)
3 * 2/3 * 4/6 * 2/6 = 4/9

10/9 + 4/9 = 14/9 = 1.556 dead Marines

Lucion

10/22/2011 02:31:05 pm

Although this is about Nids, I’d hope to make an efficient excel calculator of somesort which could be used to bench mark any race adequately. Right now I am not aware of a calculator which does this for Nova type lists or those important 4 comparisons.

Laeroth this is not the best place for the post but I am not sure where else to put it. Let me know if its better for somewhere else and I’ll see if I can find or make one.
Thanks Alot Algesan. That is a very clear and helpful explanation. Just what I needed after all that frustration. I need to go over some Tyranid lists at 500 pts with Phorus theory.. I need help checking over things like monstrous creature attacks vs vehicles. I'll do my best. I’ll start with some steps on a hive tyrant and just some hormagaunts for now.

Remember the HT here has 2 sets of scything talons so it rerolls on all failed to hit attacks – whereas nids with only 1 set of come with reroll any to hit rolls of 1 in cc (hormagaunts)

List 1
HT: extra talons – so x2 talons and wings.
DMS: 0
(I wonder if the default number for DMCC should exclude the extra attack for charging – because over the course of the game CC attrition is of higher probability than assaults with +1 attacks. Thoughts?) For the sake of making things a little more exciting I shall include the extra attack.

DMCC: 2.7

5 Attacks. S6 Monstrous creature vs MEQ

5* 2/3 5/6
5* 10/18 – 50/18 = 2.7 marines dead
Interestingly similar to the 5 Long fangs!
Btw – did you know it adds up to 2.7 if you 5 x 2 divided by 3 x 5 divided by 6?

DRPG: Erm..

5* 1/2 (penetration 5+2d6 vs 10? =?

Well I am stuck again. Theres armour types then damage rolls.

Hive Tyrant
DMS 0
DMCC 2.7
DRPG
DLRPG

30 Hormagaunts (Think I can do this one)
DMS: 0
DMCC: 90*, 1./2(but reroll 1s?) so maybe it turns to 2/3 instead? 1/3 (marines armour save)
So 90, 2/3 1/3 = 180/9.. 20 marines dead cant be right.

Well I’ve trained to failure here again and the hours spent in excel are not worth sharing. – Howeve r that one HT part I think I got right.

Devjon link

10/22/2011 06:34:38 pm

Algesan is spot on for using fractions. They end up being more accurate and I just find them easier to use.

The DMCC assumes charging, not exactly sure why but that's how it is.

The Hive Tyrant re-rolls misses in Close Combat (dual Scything Talons) and you didn't include that in your calculations. For re-rolls you've got potentially two dice you're using. The first needs to be 3+, assuming you get that it doesn't matter what the second one is so basically it's 6/6. 3+ is 4/6. Multiply that by 6/6 and you have a 24/36 which reduces to 2/3. Now if you first roll is a 1 or a 2 then you've got a 2/6 chance to get that, and then a 4/6 chance to hit with the second roll. Multiply them for 8/36 and reduce to 2/9. Add the two numbers together since it is either you hit with the first roll (which is the first chance) or you miss with the first roll and hit with the second roll (which is the second chance) and you get 6/9+2/9=8/9 is the chance to hit with a 3+ re-rolling. Plug this into your equation (5*8/9*5/6)=200/54=3.7 DMCC on the Hive Tyrant.

Against vehicles you again get the re-roll, except now your base chance is 1/2 or 3/6. 3/6*6/6=18/36 or 1/2(the chance to hit with the first roll). 3/6*3/6=9/36 or 1/4(the chance to miss with the first roll and hit with the second). Add them together for 3/4 chance to hit on a 4+ with re-rolls. Now when dealing with 2d6, the way I do it is I write out the table on a handy piece of scratch paper. For your particular problem you need a 5+(on 2d6) to penetrate, there are four 5s, five 6s, six 7s, five 8s, four 9s, three 10s, two 11s, and one 12. 4+5+6+5+4+3+2+1=30. 36 total numbers (6*6, the number of different combinations on two 6-sided dice), so 30/36 reduced to 5/6.

DRPG would then be 5*3/4*5/6=75/24=3.13 (3.125 but again, you might as well round).

DLRPG is the same, except now you need a 9+ (on 2d6) to penetrate. Consult the table and there are four 9s, three 10s, two 11s, and one 12. 4+3+2+1=10/36 (36 being the total number of numbers possible) which can be reduced to 5/18. Plug the numbers in and we get 5*3/4*5/18=75/72=1.04

Hive Tyrant
DMS:-0
DMCC:-3.7
DRPG:-3.13
DLRPG:-1.04

On to Hormagaunts.

Re-rolling just 1s is the same method. 18/36 or 1/2 to hit with the first die. Now to get the re-roll you need a 1 which is 1/6, to hit with the second die you need that 4+ again which is 3/6, 1/6*3/6=3/36 or 1/12. 1/2+1/12=7/12.

And you forgot either armor save or to wound in your calculations, so that's where the main problem lies with 20 dead marines.

Attacks*toHit*toWound*ArmorSave=DMCC
90*7/12*1/3*1/3=630/108=5.83

I hope this is clear, and if any of it seems repetitive it's because I didn't want to neglect it. :)

I have to tell you, I've only recently begun using Excel to do my calculations for me. I've been using it to hold the numbers, but I've been calculating everything with a calculator (the one in the computer itself is my most used program in my start menu) but it is so much easier to type in a formula when you need to check your work (I've found errors with my final numbers several times, which forced me to re-calculate almost everything for that particular unit.

Side note: If you want your Hormagaunts to do some real damage, give them Adrenal Glands and Toxin Sacs. Then they're S4 on the charge plus poison and with poison when your strength is equal to or greater than the toughness of your enemy you re-roll to Wound rolls. Which takes their to Wound Marines from 1/3 to 3/4, for an equal points-value unit to the thirty you have it ends up being 7.88 DMCC.

Marshal Laeroth (Admin) link

10/22/2011 08:24:59 pm

@ Lucion

Don't worry, I don't mind.

Because I'm not really an active user of the Metrics system, though I use it occasionally, the two above are better to to explain it. However, I will admit that I prefer using the decimals.

Lucion

10/23/2011 03:32:01 am

Devjon thanks a bunch. Quite alot of information and I cannot get my head round some things. I havent understood it all of yet, but I will keep going and eventually things should add up the same. Thank you again.

I think getting an adequate calculator is needed because there are proper benchmark programs for computer speeds (its quite a big thing online) - everyone has one for their modern warfare games, etc - but math hammer?

A brief look at math hammer leads to a bunch of messy and uncoordinated posts. With time I hope we can put an end to that.

Whilst I am working it out, I wanted to share the lists I am doing since you guys do it so fast and I would like to introduce the next step. Perhaps there is a shortcut, but its just worth sharing.

Being able to do these calculations is only one part of what im trying to achieve. Next is to put it into an appropriate weapon statistics system. For example like this:

http://www.themodernwarfare2.com/mw2/multiplayer/weapons/sniper-rifles/barrett-50cal/

But it would obviously make sense to know the math is behind those damage/mobility scales. However it isnt just "damage" and we are using the Nova type calculation like Phorus as a bench mark vs generally - Marine stuff.

Its 6 types of dmg. 3 for cc, 3 for shooting. Then a scale for the units mobility. Some toughness scale. Armour scale.

So here is the nid lists I need help with since. You've already done half of the the first one.

Later I need help with doing a Black Templar one.

List 1.
HQ. Hive tyrant with wings 230pts -
Troops 20 Gargolyes/Horma 120
Troops 10 garg/hormagaunt - 60
Troops Tyranid warriors x3 - 90
500 pts

HQ prime 80 pts
Troops warriors 90
Heavy Support Trygon 200
Troops 20 Hormagaunt 120
500 pts

Heavy Mawloc 170
Fast Raveners 90
HQ Prime 80
Troops 20 terma 100
Troops 10 horma 60
500 pts

Lucion

10/23/2011 03:39:16 am

Laeroth I made a huge post and its awaiting moderation :/

Lucion

10/23/2011 04:12:29 am

Devjon thankyou very much. I have included a reply, but its awaiting mod.

Devjon link

10/23/2011 09:33:57 am

You'll learn more as you practice, just don't try to handle probabilities with 3d6, then it gets really complicated. ;)

There is a pretty good calculator that can be set to all kinds of different scenarios (shooting, assaulting, shooting vehicles, assaulting vehicles) where you can determine the stats that apply, various special options you can give, add groups, all kinds of fun stuff. It's also got a usage guide to explain things if you need it (though it just explains what it does, rather than how to use it).

http://www.heresy-online.net/combatcalculator/shooting.php

I didn't try linking to it immediately because with it you don't learn how and why the numbers come out this way, just that they do (does this make sense? So that you understand the math behind the equations and then have the calculator available to do the work quickly.)

That Modern Warfare weapon stats link you gave could be compared to giving the strength, AP and range of a weapon in 40k. So just like I know the stats of that Barret .50 cal I know that a Lascannon is S9 AP2 range 48". In practice this doesn't give you much benefit unless you combine it with either experience of what that means or a strategy to use that weapon to its strengths. To an extent you can say "Weapon X is better than weapon Y in situation Z" but there's an easier way to do that beyond calculating the averages for various scores.

If I understand correctly, you want to make some sort of massive spreadsheet with the calculations of just about every weapon in the game and how well it does against various enemies (I assume Marines, Rhinos and Land Raiders either in close combat or at range), with additional scores based upon speed, toughness/AV, and Armor saves. Am I correct in this? If so, I'm afraid you're going to put something like a dozen hours in before realizing all of the little variables (especially with newer codices) that you can't account for (for example the ability Shadow in the Warp or Regeneration or Synapse from Tyranids alone).

As for the lists you made I've come up with these numbers:

List1-
DMS: 0.75
DMCC: 10.46
DRPG: 12.15
DLRPG: 4.05

List2-
DMS: 1.75
DMCC: 11.41
DRPG: 17.43
DLRPG: 7.29

List3-
DMS: 2.00
DMCC: 8.89
DRPG: 10.76
DLRPG: 2.78

Devjon link

10/23/2011 09:35:21 am

Oh! That's what you meant by awaiting moderation. Okay, if my comment goes through you can probably feel free to ignore it. That's weird.

Lucion

10/23/2011 01:39:06 pm

Devjon thanks so much. I couldnt understand it at all at first, but looking carefully I worked out how you did it.

I looked at the heresy calculator but needed to know a bit about what goes on inside the calculations.

Also yes I was thinking of a kind of giant spread sheet. I am aware of the limitations of trying to control every variable due reading through Nikes post.

Still there is things which could provide a different vantage to a combat calculator and be of great use to people.

As for weapon statistics, I am still thinking about that. What are the main differentiating characteristics of those lists? Let me know your thoughts on the Pros and Cons.

Hands down list 2 is superior by the nova calc.

Apart from that I see differences or qualities in them like Mobility, resilience, gaming (Can be nova calcs)

List 1: Pros: Higher mobility with winged tyrant. Two synapse units means little guys are fearless longer. There are no deep striking units. Cons: Land raider killing ability has only 4 wounds. If the HT dies early your in trouble generally.

For the factors below I'll look at doing them out of 10. I am not sure a fast way to do this with a calculator. Let me know if you see ways to calculate it which would give greater credibility.

Mobility 8/10
Resilience 7/10
Gaming
DMS: 0.75
DMCC: 10.46
DRPG: 12.15
DLRPG: 4.05

List 1 Conclusion: For Uber Aggressor play

List 2:

Pros It has more in common with competitive nova calculations. It has high resilience due to a Trygon and 4 multi wound beasts! Con: only 1 synapse creature.

Mobility 6/10
Resilience 8/10
Gaming
DMS: 1.75
DMCC: 11.41
DRPG: 17.43
DLRPG: 7.29

List 2 Conclusion : The better all rounder of the lists. As long as the Trygon gets in

List 3

Pro: More of a fluffy/fun list with two lots of creatures emerging from under ground. Its unpredictability is a double sided sword because your counting on two deep strikes. Cons: Your monsters may not turn up at the right time and the prime/termagaunts could get shot up too early.

Mobility: 5/10
Resilience: 7/10
Gaming
DMS: 2.00
DMCC: 8.89
DRPG: 10.76
DLRPG: 2.78

Algesan link

10/24/2011 01:32:12 am

Go back to the first few posts and near the end of the series, the metrics FAQ post.

You always count as charging, just like you always count as being at the best range for shooting. Nike's metrics are all about pure offense. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WC9o4Zz-7A&feature=related (first 10-12 seconds, heh)

Nike figures that any mobility, range, defense, durability, etc. are all part of the cost of the unit. Not a 100% correlation IMO (and his I'll bet), but close enough for a first cut approximation. Just remember that the best that can be done with the metrics is to give you indications of the *potential* strengths and weaknesses of a list. This *might* give you hints of how you could employ your units better.

It is all about how to do the two main things you need to do in 5th edition: Crack the transports & kill the squishy bits inside. If you cannot do either well enough, your list may still win, but it is going to struggle.

Lucion

10/24/2011 03:47:49 am

Thanks for framing it that way Algesan. Potential and might are the most that can be gained from metrics. Isolating numbers does not neccesarily relate to tactics, mindset or the synthesis of units.

But the core pattern of a list should be hitting certain numerical ranges in order to be effective.

Devjon link

10/24/2011 06:40:39 pm

I think you'll have trouble with using an X/10 system for mobility and durability. Unless you know the absolute best (or close enough to still be 10/10) that a 500 point list can attain, you can't count on accuracy of it beyond 'feel'. In addition, I think you've generally given the lists much too high mobility scores. Hormagaunts I think would measure for a 6-7 and the Hive Tyrant might even be a 9, except his base is quite large so he could drop to an 8. Throw in the Warriors (or anything else on foot without fleet) who are more like 4-5 and your average should be something like 6-7 instead of the 8 on the first list and the second list would average to more like 4-5 instead of 6. The third list has the Raveners who should be 7, maybe 8 because they're fleet, and you end up with 5-6 instead of your 5. But again, I'm basing this more on opinion of how different units should be scored (the best obviously being fast Skimmers). I think you'll have a better time of giving a hard and fast score of how quickly the army moves, perhaps giving the average movement of all the units or something.

This is beginning to get awkward to handle in these comments, so I hope you don't mind if I just take all of my thoughts over to my own blog where I have to space to really tackle this.

However I do want to note that a problem with all of the lists is absolutely no ranged anti-tank. The Trygon doesn't count because his range is 6" and it's only S6. (BTW, the scores of the second list could potentially be higher if you assume that the Prime is with the Warriors, thus improving their WS and BS). A Venom Cannon for the Warriors, Heavy Venom Cannon on the Hive Tyrant, or fitting in some Hive Guard are all great ways to add some shooting ability (though the Venom Cannon doesn't add much, and the Heavy Venom Cannon won't usually be able to kill vehicles, but both would make it easier to catch the vehicles by getting those rolls on the damage chart).

John Stiening link

10/27/2011 11:20:08 pm

My understanding of unauthorized access is that it by itself is illegal, so whomever accessed your account has already broken the law.

Devjon link

10/29/2011 02:31:14 pm

Nevermind, I got my head around what you're doing (sorry for the wait).

Okay, basically you want to use Nikephoros's system but with added Mobility and Resilience stats. I think you're going to have trouble accurately measuring those and if you use a scale of X/10 you need to decide if it's based on the codex (Tyranids aren't a fast army as they're mostly on foot) or just in general (and if you are grading armies, do you grade average or the rate of the slowest?). Resilience can be done similarly to the Metric System (how many S4 non-armor piercing hits can you take and how many S9 Armor piercing hits can you take, melee vs. shooting is unimportant when you only count hits).

You also have the opportunity to add to Nikephoros's Metrics as they concern Vehicles. Rather than using the number of penetrating hits you could measure Wrecked/Explodes results or Immobilized/Weapon Destroyed/Wrecked/Explodes results to account for things like AP1 and Glancing (Heavy Bolters can actually add their S5 shots to targeting tanks).

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